Milkipur by-election 2024: SP-BJP in the race to balance caste equations, who will win?
After the way was cleared for the by-election on the Milkipur assembly seat of Ayodhya, the ruling BJP and the opposition SP have intensified their preparations. If we look at the caste equations and political strategies of this seat, then Dalit and Brahmin votes will play a decisive role. While the SP has made its MP's son its candidate, the BJP's candidate is yet to be declared.
INDC Network : Uttar Pradesh : Milkipur by-election 2024: SP-BJP in race for racial equality, who will win?
Why is there a by-election in Milkipur?
The by-election of the Milkipur assembly seat was stalled due to petitions filed for election in the 2022 assembly elections. Recently, the Allahabad High Court allowed the withdrawal of these petitions, which cleared the way for this by-election.
This seat is part of Ayodhya Lok Sabha constituency. This by-election has become necessary after the resignation of SP MP Awadhesh Prasad.
Major caste equation of Milkipur by-election
| ethnic group | number (approx.) | importance |
|---|---|---|
| dalit | 1,20,000 | pivotal role |
| Yadav (OBC) | 55,000 | SP's traditional vote bank |
| Muslim | 30,000 | Expecting the support of the SP |
| Brahmin | 60,000 | Important for BJP |
| Kshatriya | 25,000 | Balancing voters |
| Other Backward Classes | Remaining voters | decisive position |
Strategies of BJP and SP
The BJP, after a spectacular performance in the recent nine-seat by-election, is trying to capture the Milkipur seat. On the other hand, SP has fielded Ajit Prasad, son of MP Awadhesh Prasad, to retain this seat.
Challenges and opportunities for BJP
The BJP has recently shown its strength by registering victories in SP strongholds like Kunderki. Winning Milkipur seat is a question of prestige for him.
SP's 'PDA' formula
SP's formula (backward-dalit-minority) may be decisive in this seat. This formula worked in the previous Lok Sabha elections, now it will be a challenge to repeat it.
BSP and Congress tree
BSP has already announced not to contest the by-elections. Congress will probably support SP.
The Role of Racial Equations
Dalits are the largest number of 3.5 lakh voters in Milkipur seat. In caste equations, winning the support of Dalits, Brahmins, Yadavs, and other backward classes will clear the way for any party to win.
Political history of Milkipur
In 2002, SP leader Awadhesh Prasad won this seat by defeating BJP's Baba Gorakhnath. Prasad secured 49.99% votes. This seat has been a traditional stronghold for the SP.
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