Political Tug of War in UP By-Elections: Congress Displeased with Seat Sharing Amid SP-Congress Rift

INDC Network : Uttar Pradesh : The upcoming Uttar Pradesh by-elections have set the stage for a dramatic political confrontation between the Congress and Samajwadi Party (SP), as both parties gear up to contest under the INDIA alliance. What was intended to be a show of unity is now marred by brewing discontent, with Congress expressing displeasure over the seat allocation. SP, in a gesture of alliance solidarity, left two seats for Congress, but these constituencies—Ghaziabad and Khair—have historically been challenging for Congress, leading to its dissatisfaction.

Congress Unhappy with Seat Allocation:

Congress, aiming to regain its footing in Uttar Pradesh, finds itself at odds with the seats offered by SP. The constituencies of Ghaziabad and Khair, both BJP strongholds, have seen Congress fail repeatedly over the years. Ghaziabad, a seat where Congress has not tasted victory in 22 years, remains a tough battleground. Similarly, in Khair, Congress has not won in over 40 years, with the BJP and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) dominating the region. Ajay Rai, UP Congress President, has openly expressed his surprise over the seat-sharing agreement, stating, "We had proposed five seats to the central leadership for the by-elections. I am unaware of how many seats have been given to us. The final directive will come from the central leadership, and we will abide by it." The statement reflects the growing dissatisfaction within the Congress ranks, as the party was hoping for a more favorable deal from its alliance partner, SP.

SP’s Calculated Move:

On the other side, SP seems to be playing its cards cautiously. According to Amik Jamei, SP’s national spokesperson, "The official announcement of the SP-Congress alliance under the INDIA banner will be made soon. Only then will I comment further. One thing is certain: SP and Congress will contest these by-elections together." Despite the outward show of unity, there is a clear strategic tug of war behind the scenes. SP’s decision to leave Congress with Ghaziabad and Khair, two difficult seats, could be seen as an attempt to safeguard its own interests while fulfilling alliance obligations.

Ghaziabad and Khair—Congress’s Uphill Battle:

The two seats allocated to Congress—Ghaziabad and Khair—pose significant challenges. In Ghaziabad, Congress last won in 2002, and since then, it has consistently lost to either BJP or BSP. In the 2022 assembly elections, Congress barely managed to secure 11,778 votes. On the other hand, Khair has been even more dismal for Congress, where it last won over four decades ago. The 2022 elections saw Congress’s Monika securing just 1,514 votes against BJP’s Anoop Valmiki, who garnered over 139,000 votes. For Congress, contesting these seats under the current scenario appears daunting. Despite the dismal track record, the party is preparing to field candidates, with names like Dr. Dolly Sharma for Ghaziabad and Rohatash Singh Jatav for Khair being discussed internally.

Congress's Proposal vs. SP’s Offer:

Congress’s initial proposal for five seats included Mirapur, Ghaziabad, Khair, Majhwan, and Phulpur. The party was hopeful, especially for Mirapur, where the SP-RLD alliance had won in 2022. However, SP has strong reasons to believe that it can win these constituencies on its own, leaving Congress with just two seats. The seat-sharing disagreement highlights the tension between the two allies. SP believes it has a better chance of winning Majhwan and Phulpur and has therefore chosen to retain these seats, despite Congress’s attempts to show strength by holding worker conferences in these areas.

Is the Alliance Shaky?

SP’s decision to allocate just two tough seats to Congress could either be seen as a strategic move or as a display of dominance in the alliance. SP’s national leader, Akhilesh Yadav, has repeatedly emphasized the need for unity within the INDIA alliance, stating that only through cooperation can they defeat the BJP. Yet, this seat-sharing arrangement reveals cracks in the coalition, raising concerns over the alliance’s long-term viability.

SP’s Broader Strategy—A Power Play Beyond UP:

Interestingly, SP’s allocation of these seats to Congress may not only be about the UP by-elections. Sources suggest that SP is looking to pressure Congress in other states, such as Maharashtra and Jharkhand, where it hopes to contest more seats in upcoming assembly elections. SP currently has two MLAs in Maharashtra and is eyeing 12 seats in the next election. In Jharkhand, SP aims to claim Yadav-dominated constituencies, though its chances are slim given the pre-existing Congress-JMM-RJD alliance. SP’s power play in Uttar Pradesh may, therefore, be part of a larger strategy to gain leverage in national negotiations with Congress.

The History of SP-Congress Alliance:

This isn’t the first time SP and Congress have entered into an uneasy alliance. In the 2017 assembly elections, the two parties joined forces, though they faced a crushing defeat. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, they again aligned under the INDIA banner, with SP contesting 63 seats and Congress 17. SP secured 37 seats, while Congress managed to win six. Despite these successes, the friction between the two parties has been evident, as both vie for dominance within the alliance.

Upcoming By-Elections—A Test for the INDIA Alliance:

The UP by-elections are proving to be a litmus test for the SP-Congress alliance. As the election date nears, both parties have been actively making preparations. SP has already appointed in-charges for six constituencies, while Congress has appointed observers for all 10. Yet, the delay in officially announcing seat-sharing has caused unease among party workers from both sides. The upcoming elections may not just determine who controls the 10 constituencies but could also shape the future dynamics of the INDIA alliance as it prepares for the 2025 general elections.