UP Assembly: Will silent role be beneficial or detrimental for Congress?

INDC Network : Uttar Pradesh : The by-elections in Uttar Pradesh have set the stage for an unconventional alliance between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress, where Congress has taken an unexpected backseat, playing the “silent player.” In nine assembly seats, Congress has chosen to stand by and let SP lead, a move that is as intriguing as it is ambiguous. Congress’s absence from the ballot in these by-elections is part of a calculated strategy, even as it extends support to SP. However, the absence of Congress’s own candidates raises questions: Is this a strategic retreat designed to prevent the party from weakening its influence ahead of the 2027 state elections, or a tactical endorsement of SP’s capabilities?

In the recent Lok Sabha elections, SP and Congress managed to strike a chord with voters, with their alliance proving to be a formidable opponent to the BJP. Together, they won 43 out of 80 seats, with both parties crediting the victory to the synergy between Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav. But in the by-elections, this camaraderie seems absent; Congress’s role in these nine constituencies appears limited to silent support, with no joint rallies or unified campaign strategy. Akhilesh Yadav has announced his campaign across all nine constituencies, but the question remains—how much impact will Congress’s quiet stance have on SP’s chances?

Congress’s Silent Role and Its Implications

Four months ago, when the SP-Congress alliance managed to beat the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, it looked like the beginning of a renewed political chemistry. However, that same synergy is not visible in the by-elections. Congress, the third-largest party in UP, has refrained from contesting on any seat, choosing instead to lend its support to SP without taking an active role. The absence of a joint rally and a visible Congress campaign suggests a marked shift from the Lok Sabha elections, where Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav worked side by side. This time, Congress has opted for a quieter presence, and political analysts are divided on whether this strategy benefits or harms SP’s prospects.

This silent role aligns with Congress's long-term strategy. Congress initially sought five of the nine by-election seats but eventually backed down after SP was willing to offer only two, both of which—Khair and Ghaziabad—were not seen as advantageous. Instead, Congress chose to step aside, allowing SP to run solo while focusing on stronger positioning for the 2027 assembly elections. A significant consideration here is that if Congress had contested the by-elections and faced defeat, its bargaining power would have suffered in the long run, especially as it seeks to leverage more favorable constituencies in future elections.

SP’s Strategy and Akhilesh Yadav’s Challenge

SP leader Akhilesh Yadav faces a delicate balancing act as he tries to win these by-elections without Congress’s direct involvement. Akhilesh has been careful to appeal to Congress supporters and voters from the India Alliance, specifically targeting Muslim and Dalit communities. The SP leader has also highlighted his commitment to representing minority communities, a move aimed at consolidating support among Dalits and Muslims, two voter groups that often swing between SP and Congress.

Akhilesh will soon launch his campaign from Karhal, with rallies scheduled across all nine seats. SP sources indicate that while Congress may lend indirect support, no joint rally plans have been confirmed, suggesting limited coordination. This could impact voter perception, as many UP voters had seen the alliance as a unified front against the BJP. For Akhilesh, ensuring that the PDA formula (i.e., backward caste, Dalit, and minority votes) remains in favor of SP is crucial, but it is a challenge that grows tougher in the absence of Congress’s vocal support.

Dalit and Muslim Vote Dynamics

The UP by-elections will see intense competition for the Dalit and Muslim votes. Congress had a strong showing among Dalit voters in the Lok Sabha elections, especially with BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) leader Mayawati’s traditional vote bank moving toward Congress. This shift was evident in constituencies where Congress contested against BJP, with many Dalit voters, including the Jatav community, choosing Congress over SP. Similarly, the Muslim community largely supported SP in recent elections, but it was Congress’s endorsement that helped consolidate this voter segment.

SP’s reliance on Congress’s silent backing may affect its ability to retain these votes in the long run. While Akhilesh has positioned himself as the representative of minorities, Congress’s strategic silence implies it is reserving its strength for a future showdown rather than expending resources on potentially challenging by-election seats. This approach, reminiscent of SP’s silent support for Congress in the Haryana elections, signals a calculated decision on Congress’s part: instead of risking defeat in unfavorable constituencies, it has opted for discretion and alignment with SP, albeit without a full-throated campaign.

Calculated Silence or Missed Opportunity?

As Congress takes a backseat in these by-elections, the political future of SP and the effectiveness of their alliance hang in the balance. Congress’s choice not to contest signals a desire to avoid weakening its own electoral power, while SP now bears the responsibility of maintaining voter enthusiasm in the absence of their ally’s active participation. With Rahul Gandhi and other top Congress leaders keeping a noticeable distance, the by-elections become a test of SP’s independent strength, but they also risk losing the unified momentum they enjoyed in the Lok Sabha elections.

In the larger scheme, Congress’s silent support mirrors SP’s role in previous elections, where it backed Congress in Haryana without campaigning. However, political experts note that while such indirect support can help maintain alliance cohesion, it may not be enough to counter the BJP’s strong position in UP by-elections. SP may find itself shouldering the burden of campaigning and consolidating voters, but without Congress’s overt endorsement, the road to victory could be steeper than anticipated.